Raymond L. Orbach
Where Will the New Energy Come From?
December 2006 / January 2007
Volume 4 Number 6
We Americans are products of a world where energy was long assumed to be cheap, unlimited and readily available. Today, all three assumptions are in question.
In a few short years, the problem of energy has emerged as one of the defining—€”and most difficult—€”challenges of the 21st century. It is both a national challenge and a global one. Indeed, providing sufficient environmentally friendly energy to meet the needs of a rapidly growing and developing world population may be one of the most pressing problems our civilization has ever faced.
The world's energy appetite will at least double by the end of this century (some claim it will triple). If we attempt to meet this burgeoning global demand exclusively with fossil fuels, the environmental consequences are difficult to predict. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide stands at just under 400 parts per million (ppm) today, an estimated 40 percent increase since the beginning of the industrial era. Under a worst-case scenario, it might rise to nearly 1,000 ppm by the end of this century—€” assuming exclusive or near-exclusive reliance on fossil fuels for the world's energy supply. Such projections are notoriously assumption-dependent. But, in broad terms, to stabilize the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide at some reasonable level over the next hundred years, the amount of carbon-neutral energy required at the end of this century will more or less equal the earth's total energy consumption at the beginning of this century.
The world therefore has a two-fold problem: where will this new energy come from, and how can we provide energy that is environmentally friendly?
Solving this problem will—€”and should—€”challenge the scientific community.
Current fossil energy sources, energy production methods and technology will be unable to meet this challenge, and incremental changes in technology will not suffice. To meet these energy and environmental needs, we need transformational discoveries in basic science and truly disruptive technologies. Electricity was not discovered by perfecting the candle.
In his 2006 State of the Union address, President Bush clearly recognized the central role of science in meeting our energy challenge. He announced an Advanced Energy Initiative, a major 22 percent increase for clean-energy research in what he called "two vital areas": the way we power our homes and the way we power automobiles. Included were increases in research on zero-emission coal plants, solar and wind technologies and nuclear energy, as well research on hybrid and electric cars. He also set a goal of making cellulosic ethanol—€”or ethanol transportation fuel from plant fiber—€”"practical and competitive within six years." In a speech to a joint Department of Energy- Department of Agriculture conference, "Advancing Renewable Energy," in October 2006, the president reiterated his commitment to provide major federal support for research into clean, renewable energy.
The search for these transformational solutions is at the core of DOE's mission. The research portfolio of the department is quite broad, but here I would point to five areas in particular where we are aggressively supporting research that has real prospects of providing us with major carbon-free or carbon-neutral means of meeting growing energy demand: conservation, bioenergy, wind, fusion and nuclear.
Conservation. Electricity production in the United States uses about 40 percent of primary energy, and of this amount, about 70 percent is waste or rejected energy. Overall, about 60 percent of U.S. primary energy is lost in waste or rejected heat. So we are not using energy terribly efficiently today. We are accustomed to think of conservation as a behavioral phenomenon: turning off lights, keeping down the thermostat, driving less, etc. But the greatest strides in conservation are those we can achieve technologically. We have an everyday example close at hand. Energy Star-qualified compact fluorescent lights (CFL), readily available at your local "big box" store, use at least two-thirds less energy than standard incandescent bulbs, last up to ten times longer, and save $30 or more over the bulb's lifetime. If every U.S. household replaced just one bulb with a CFL, we could conserve enough power to light more than 2.5 million homes for a year and cut greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to removing 800,000 cars from the road. DOE is supporting advanced conservation research in solid-state lighting, refrigeration, appliances, building technologies and vehicles—€”all of which can provide substantial gains in meeting energy demand without adding to greenhouse gas emissions.
Bioenergy. Biofuels, in particular cellulosic ethanol and other fuels from biomass, constitute one of the most promising new sources of carbon-neutral energy. According to a joint DOE-USDA study, the United States is capable of producing 1 billion dry tons of biomass annually (agricultural and forestry wastes, grains and 55 million acres of perennial bioenergy crops)—€”enough for 60 billion gallons of ethanol per year, or about 30 percent of today's transportation fuel usage—€”and continue to meet food, feed and export demands. Biofuels are essentially carbon-neutral: as plant feedstocks grow, they reabsorb the carbon dioxide emitted when biofuels are burned. Producing them cost-effectively will require major breakthroughs in the conversion process; today many scientists believe that the biotechnology revolution has put these breakthroughs within reach. DOE has committed $250 million over five years to fund two bioenergy research centers to undertake basic research on both microbes and plants with aim of achieving the transformational breakthroughs to make biofuels commercially viable on a major scale.
Wind. Carbon-free, renewable energy from wind could provide up to 20 percent of our annual electricity demand. In 2005, the United States installed a record 2,431 megawatts (MW) of wind energy. Wind now produces 9,149 MW, enough to power 2.3 million homes. The top-of-the-line wind turbine is now rated at 6 MW (1 MW powers over 250 homes).
Fusion. Fusion harnesses the sun's and stars' own methods of producing energy. It uses the abundant elements of deuterium and lithium as fuel and produced no carbon emissions, pollution or spent nuclear fuel. The United States has joined with the European Union, Japan, Russia, China, the Republic of Korea and India in a major cooperative effort to build ITER, an experimental fusion reactor that will help make fusion energy viable.
Nuclear. Nuclear energy now provides 20 percent of our electricity—€”with zero greenhouse gas emissions. It could provide much more. The key challenge here is handling spent nuclear fuel (and the related problem of nuclear proliferation). Under the president's Global Nuclear Energy Initiative, DOE is supporting major new work in chemistry, materials science and computation designed to "close the fuel cycle" and facilitate the expansion nuclear energy, both here and abroad, to satisfy major increases in global energy demand without adding to atmospheric carbon.
All this is part of what the president calls "a comprehensive approach." The point is that our nation and the world must find a way to support economic growth and environmental stewardship together. Transformational science holds out the promise of meeting growing energy demand—€”supporting growing economies and a rising global standard of living—€”without undermining the environment. As the president said at the DOE-DOA conference, thanks to the promise of science and technology, "it's not a zero-sum game anymore."
Raymond L. Orbach was sworn in as the Energy Department's first under secretary for science in June 2006. He is responsible for planning, coordinating and overseeing DOE's R&D programs and its 17 national labs. He is also director of the DOE Office of Science. He was previously chancellor and professor of physics at the University of California, Riverside. He earned his Ph.D. in physics from UC Berkeley.
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