Les Shephard
The Promise of Nuclear Energy
Special Issue
Volume A Number 1
Les Shephard, Ph.D., is Vice President, Energy, Security and Defense Technologies at Sandia National Laboratories.His responsibilities include basic energy science; fossil, renewable and nuclear energy; nuclear power safety and repositories; and nonproliferation activities.
Energy demand over the next 20 years is projected to increase in excess of 65 percent; nearly 75 percent of that is likely to occur in emerging nations. With this rapidly increasing demand, we must rely on all energy supply options. We must incorporate renewals, fossil energy, alternative transportation fuels and nuclear power, if we are to create this future.
As we look around the world today, we recognize that nuclear power is increasing at an accelerating rate. Within the United States, electricity demand is expected to increase in excess of 35 percent over the next 20 years. To meet this growing demand, nuclear power holds much promise and is enjoying greater acceptance. A recent public opinion survey showed that 74 percent of the American public actually favor the development of nuclear power; 69 percent favor and strongly support the construction of new nuclear power plants; and 79 percent believe that nuclear power plants are safe and secure.
There's a growing recognition of the impact that nuclear power can have on reducing CO2 emissions. In 2007 electricity generated using nuclear power reduced CO2 emissions on the order of 700 million metric tons than if one used fossil fuel to generate that same amount of electricity.
The promise of nuclear power requires that we continue to enhance existing technology and to develop new technologies for the future—€”technologies that will lead to the production of hydrogen for powering our transportation sector, technologies that can power the Mars Rover and allow us to explore neighboring planets and technologies that will allow us to develop small, modular, safe and proliferation-resistant reactors for use in emerging nations. Of course, we must use technology to preclude the impacts of proliferation and to assure the security of nuclear materials. And we will continue to develop transportation systems and nuclear facilities that improve our safety and security overall.
The most difficult issue is what to do with spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste. Today, there are 439 nuclear power plants in more than 30 countries. About 70 percent are in the U.S., the U.K., France, Russia, Japan, Canada and South Korea. Fifteen nations have fewer than five nuclear power plants. These latter countries present a unique challenge: How are they going to maintain the future nuclear infrastructure? Are they capable of developing the trained personnel to manage and maintain the nuclear infrastructure throughout the course of the nuclear fuel cycle?
Today 36 new nuclear power plants are being constructed around the world, the vast majority in Russia, India, China and South Korea. Currently, nuclear power generates 14 percent of electricity worldwide. Sixteen nations generate more than 25 percent of their electricity with nuclear; seven countries generate more than 40 percent and two, Lithuania and France, generate in excess of 60 percent of their electricity with nuclear. France generates 77 percent using nuclear power.
Several countries—€”Lithuania, Switzerland, Sweden and others—€”have a few nuclear power plants that generate in excess of 30 percent of their electricity. A number of other nations, such as the United States, China and Japan, rely heavily on nuclear power. The U.S. has one of the largest nuclear fleets in the world. In fact, we have 104 commercial nuclear power plants operating in 64 locations and 31 states.
Over the last 15 to 20 years this nuclear power fleet actually operated at a capacity of 92 percent. We've seen a significant increase in operational capacity, from about 76 percent to 92 percent today. This is equivalent, roughly, to 14 new nuclear power plants of 1,000 megawatts. It's a significant and very positive change for this country.
In the last 13 to 14 years, the cost of nuclear-generated electricity has decreased by one-third. Today at 1.76 cents per kilowatt-hour, it is less than electricity generated by coal, and significantly less than electricity generated by other fossil fuels and renewables.
It's a well-known fact that we have not constructed a new nuclear power plant since 1978. We have a nuclear power fleet that's an average of 28 years old, which is licensed to operate for 40 years with an option to extend that license for an additional 20 years. Nearly three quarters of the nuclear power plants in the United States have either received an extension to operate for a full 60 years, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is in the process of reviewing an extension, and/or they plan to submit an application in the next five years.
There's good news in all of this. Today the NRC is in the process of reviewing applications for construction of 17 nuclear power plants and 26 nuclear power units. However, no new construction has begun.
I wanted to talk about the safety and security of nuclear power plants. Sandia has spent the better part of 30 years conducting large-scale experimental tests on Kirtland Air Force Base to develop these costly, complex experiments as well as developing the underlying model and assimilation analysis essential to providing confidence in the safety and security of these facilities.
In the late 1980s we did some work with Japan. One of the most visible and highly publicized experiments was on a 10,000-foot-long sled track. The intent of the experiment was to understand the impacts of an airplane crash into a nuclear facility. We utilized an F4 Phantom jet attached to a jet engine and propelled it down the track at 480 m.p.h. It allowed us to understand the dynamic response of the aircraft frame, its engines and its landing gear, as it impacts a 12-foot thick, semi-ridged, concrete-block wall.
We conducted a similar experiment in 2003. Our interest was in understanding the impacts on the containment structure. We propelled a large tank of water down the track at about 350 m.p.h. The data we collected allowed us to predict the impacts of these crashes long term. The analysis provided confidence to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the International Atomic Energy Agency and others of our abilities to predict the impacts of a severe accident for nuclear facilities.
In the third experiment, again with the Japanese, we developed a one-quarter scaled containment structure modeled after an operational containment structure for a power plant located in Japan. The facility was seven stories tall and 35 feet in diameter, constructed of heavily reinforced concrete, and contained about 1,500 sensors. The concept was to evaluate the impacts of over-pressurization of a containment vessel at a nuclear power plant. We drove this particular system to catastrophic failure intentionally. It was a bad day for the containment vessel; it was a great day for the experimentalists.
It's clear that global energy demand will continue to increase and nuclear power will and does play a significant role not only in this country, but in the rest of the world. But it is critical that the United States reassert its leadership role in the area of nuclear power, and move the promise of nuclear power to a reality, to help fully realize America's energy future.
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