innovation: Article- A New Direction in Energy Policy

Inertia is the enemy of the United States in preparing for a 21st century energy policy, Steve Koonin, under secretary for science at the Department of Energy, told an audience at Michigan State University recently in a major speech on energy policy. But steps the Obama administration are taking now—particularly in the areas of conservation and research—are critical to ensuring the nation can meet its energy needs for the future while reducing its carbon footprint.

Koonin highlighted several existing and near-term technologies with commercial and environmental appeal. His keynote was a central part of a celebration that marked both a major expansion of MSU’s National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory and the DOE’s selection in December of MSU as the site for the half-billion dollar Facility for Rare Isotope Beams.

Today, 80 percent of the world’s energy comes from fossil fuels. And there’s a good reason for this domination, Koonin said. Despite public belief, fossil fuels are widely available. Oil and coal reserves will remain sufficient for decades to come. Fossil fuels are relatively easy to obtain and use compared with other energy sources, primarily because we are familiar with how to use it.

However, fossil fuels provide two major challenges for the United States. First, because oil is crucial to the way the U.S. has structured the society for transportation, relying on distant countries for energy stability creates a clear “security of supply issue,” particularly since the U.S. spends $840 million a day importing oil. The other challenge is the “likely catastrophic” implications of global warming. While Koonin acknowledged there may be some debate over the timing and severity of increased greenhouse gases on the environment, he emphasized that at the very least “ocean acidification is a certain outcome within the next 100 years” without dramatic change in our practices.

Addressing the long term issues of energy security and climate is the key driver of U.S. energy policy under President Obama. He said the administration has a goal of reducing total oil imports by an amount equivalent to current U.S. Middle East imports, which is about 3.5 million barrels a day or more than 25 percent of current total imports. At the same time, Obama is seeking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent from 1995 levels by 2020, and by 80 percent by 2050.

“The problem neatly divides into transportation and stationary sources,” Koonin said. On the conservation side, the administration applauded and quickly signed into law Congress’s move to raise the Corporate Average Fuel Economy—CAFE—standards from the current 25 miles per gallon to 35 miles per gallon in the next decade. Among the existing technologies for internal combustion engines that will lead to greater efficiency—homogeneous charge compression ignition, variable valve timing and exhaust gas recycling. Further down the line is the complete electrification of vehicles, which is why improved battery technology is, Koonin said, “one of the long poles in the technology tent DOE is working very hard to erect.”

On the supply side, the administration will continue to encourage alternative fuel development. He said the U.S. should shift away from corn and sugar cane-based ethanol and instead move toward other alternatives like lignocellulose matter and energy crops such as miscanthus and switchgrass as the base for biofuels. Koonin pointed to the DOE-funded Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, located at Michigan State, as well as two addition alternative fuel research centers as an example of the agency’s aggressive funding of innovative alternative energy research.

Koonin again emphasized conservation when he turned his focus to stationary sources. Using existing technology can make a major difference, he said, and the department continues to push its Energy Star appliance grading program.DOE has also earmarked major resources in the recently approved federal stimulus package for weatherization of buildings and other energy efficiency programs. The key is to conceive of buildings as systems of energy and resource flows, which in turn will require an integrated network of sensors and robust data processing capability in many existing and new structures.

Conservation can be as simple as changing the incentives for the nation’s utilities. An example is the decoupling concepts in place in California that allows utilities to recoup from customers even when electric use decreases. In decoupling—if actual sales are less than what was forecast, there is a slight upward adjustment in rates to compensate the utility. Any rate increase per kilowatt hour is usually offset by lower energy use (and usually lower overall energy bills) due to increased conservation and lower energy consumption.

Yogi Berra is supposed to once have quipped that “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Koonin, though, is perhaps in a better position than most to make some reasoned guesses about the future. He is a former Caltech provost, BP chief scientist and member of the Council on Foreign Relations. His predictions about likely near-term trends, a list that should be tracked to the bulletin boards of anyone looking to invest in the transitioning energy sector, include:

• Enhanced deployment of natural gas. In recent years gas reserves have increased by a factor of two or three as a result of better technology to get gas out of shale.
• Increase in on-shore wind. Wind, which right now accounts for no more than 1.3 percent of electricity generated in the United States, will account for 20 percent by 2030.
• Sustained or increased deployment of nuclear energy. DOE is making investments to streamline the licensing process, solve the issue of spent fuel and develop next-generation reactors that go beyond the current light-water reactors common today. These investments should lead to a renaissance of nuclear energy, the only reasonably economical and scalable emissions-lite technology.
• Deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies. Coal accounts for as much as 50 percent of all electricity generated in the United States. Because of coal’s dominance, and the relatively slow pace of change, it is imperative to make investments that will prevent carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere through capture and underground storage of emissions from coal-fired power plants.

Perhaps more important than Koonin’s predictions was his attitude about the possibility of achieving success. After all, the energy problem is deep and multifaceted, requiring not only the coordinated, interdisciplinary efforts of leading scientists, but also constructive cooperation of interests groups spanning the public, governments at all levels and the business community. Koonin, however, is at least somewhat bullish about the future. “We are really trying to focus the U.S. efforts on energy,” he said. “I am optimistic we will be able to stir progress in the next four to six years.”

Monica Fineis is studying public relations at Michigan State.

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