The Energy Future

June / July 2004 Volume 2 Number 3

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Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio, serves industry and government in developing new technologies and products. It manages or co-manages several national laboratories including the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Brookhaven National Laboratory, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Battelle regularly issues predictions in several technology areas. In 2000, it released a list of the top ten energy innovations by the year 2010. Stephen M. Millett, managing principal of the Battelle Technology Management Group and an internationally recognized expert in technology forecasting, recently reviewed the forecast and, he says, it "still looks good, with some modifications."
Those modifications, prepared by Dr. Millett exclusively for TechComm, appear in italic type following the original predictions.

The original list, Dr. Millett said, "was the product of a virtual expert focus group. It is an exercise in expert judgment based on the accumulative technological experiences of some 40 Battelle and national laboratory participants."

1. A shifting energy industry structure: Substantial innovations in the energy industry and its energy technologies are occurring. Deregulation of the natural gas and electric utilities will continue, resulting in more competition and more mergers. Small, independent utilities will decline and be swept up into the emerging super utilities. Oil companies will become energy companies, competing in both the mobile and stationary energy markets. New players, such as automobile companies, may emerge as formidable influences in the energy industry.

If this were to occur as expected, it could well rank as the most important change of the decade. As of this moment, however, there are few signs of any major shifting energy industry structure. The oil companies have shown an interest in energy forms of the future and they are investing in such innovations as hydrogen production, but they have not yet bought up any electric or natural gas companies to expand their range of energy offerings. In addition, we have seen very little expansion of major electric and gas utilities outside of their traditional base. In fact, the Enron scandal caused a major retreat back to the traditional utility business. There has also been some foreign interest in American utility assets, but the aggregation of international utilities like international oil companies has just barely begun.

2. Hybrid Vehicles: With $2 a gallon gas prices fresh in the minds of consumers, the idea of hybrid cars doesn't sound so bad. Mileage of 70 mpg will create a lot of converts. The first generation of these vehicles is already here in a sporty two-seater from Honda. Hybrid vehicles use smaller, more efficient internal combustion engines and use power from electric batteries for an extra boost during acceleration. "U.S. automakers have produced a next-generation of hybrid concept cars that will pave the way to 80 mpg, five-passenger sedans," said Tony Schaffhauser of Oak Ridge National Laboratory. However, while making progress in the next ten years, full transition may require decades.

Progressing faster than we expected. The rate of market penetration depends upon general economic conditions, the price of gasoline and environmental concerns. As the price of gasoline goes up, the hybrid vehicle looks increasingly attractive. In the meanwhile, the quality of batteries is improving (No.7) and the fuel cell is coming within the next five years. Honda and Toyota took great risks in the 1990s by developing prototype hybrid fuel cars and they are now in a global market leadership position with Detroit now in a catch-up mode.

3. Smart Energy Management Systems: In the way that computers and the Internet are radically changing our economy today, they'll change energy systems even more so in the future. Computers, the Internet and global positioning systems will increase the efficiency of transportation. They'll reduce congestion and traffic delays and be used in heating, air conditioning, household appliances and business equipment. They also will play vital roles in efficiency of energy production and distribution systems such as pipelines, refineries, power plants and transmission lines.

On track and more important than ever. The smart grid of the future seems even more compelling since the widespread electric blackouts in the eastern U.S. and Canada in August 2003.

4. Distributed Power Generation: Some experts are saying the current national power grid may not be able to meet skyrocketing demand. Power grids of this scale are on the way out. Major blackouts due to storms and overloading of the grid will become a thing of the past. "People and businesses are demanding more reliable power sources," said Bobi Garrett, from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo. "The economic cost of a power disruption in information-driven business like finance and e-commerce, is extremely high," she said. Power may be generated locally for neighborhoods and individual residences and businesses. This will be done via micro-turbines, internal combustion engines and fuel cells. There will be an increased use of natural gas because it's clean, cheap and available.

Not moving as fast as we expected. Few electric utilities have embraced it despite the prohibitively high costs and aggravations of ever building large power plants in the future. The distributed generation, or distributed resources, space lacks aggressive leadership. More is being done with the concept in Japan than in the U.S. A major breakthrough would be in reduced emission diesel generators. Further into the future, fuel cells might be the prevailing mode of distributed generation

5. Fuel cells: There has been a lot of progress in fuel cell technology over the past ten years, but much more needs to happen over the coming decade. Fuel cells will become increasingly popular for transportation and for portable and stationary power generation over the next decade. "These systems will provide power at competitive rates while drastically reducing the impact of power generation on the environment," said Don McConnell, Associate Lab Director for Energy Science and Technology at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Before being accepted by the public, fuel cells must be made smaller and cheaper.

I might now move this up to first place given the rapid technological progress and falling prices for fuel cells, especially PEM fuel cells. Many challenges still remain, but trends favor the first generation of commercial fuel cells within about five years.

6. Gas to Liquid Conversion: Scientists predict the development of chemical engineering processes to transform hydrocarbon compounds from gases to liquids. This will permit more flexible use and storage of fuels. One example is the conversion of natural gas to diesel fuel for transportation. "Gas to liquid technology offers an exciting, economically attractive opportunity to convert natural gas from remote locations—€”which otherwise would be wasted—€”into easily transported and inherently clean fuel," said Denny Stephens, Senior Research Scientist for Battelle's Energy Products.

Still very important, although it may not be moving as quickly as we expected. I would now add to this solid to gas or liquid conversion: arguably one of the biggest innovations that might occur within the next 20 (not likely next 10) years is the gasification of coal, whereby we could exploit our enormous reserves of coal by extracting gasified or possibly liquefied hydrogen while separating out sulfur, carbon, and other constituents. Then we would no longer have to burn coal but to use it as a feedstock to a more value-added form of energy while avoiding present environmental problems.

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The rest of the list I would not change at this moment. Future developments and new information, however, would change our expectations.

7. Advanced Batteries: Batteries will continue a 20-year trend of advancements into the next decade. These next-generation batteries will be based on lithium polymer technology and have about three times as much energy capability as those currently on the market.

8. Energy Farms: The use of bio-engineered crops for fuels will be hurried along by the genetic revolution that permits cultivation of crops to produce fuels such as ethanol. With advances in DNA engineering, we will be able to grow energy as well as food crops.

9. Solar Energy: We've heard about this for a long time and it's still hanging tough. That's because it's considered the ultimate sustainable energy form. It's also difficult to capture and store large quantities in a cost-effective manner. But Battelle experts see substantial improvements over the next decade. "Advancements have been made using solar energy for the heating and cooling of buildings, and recent advances in the solar cell efficiency hold the promise of making widespread terrestrial application a reality," said NREL's Bobi Garrett. Progress is continually being made in the development of efficient photovoltaic cells.

10. Methane Hydrate Crystal Mining: Geologists have discovered rich deposits of frozen natural gas crystals on the ocean bottom. Tapping this reserve would be a quantum leap in our ability to provide energy for the future. Although some new government programs are exploring recovery methods and associated ramifications, there haven't been any commercial attempts to retrieve this vast reserve.

I might add to our list a new element: Carbon management. A major concern that is emerging today is the impact of greenhouse gases, principally methane and carbon dioxide, on global climate changes. This might emerge as the biggest environmental concern in the period of 2010-2020, if not by 2010. The principal causes of carbon dioxide emissions are automotive vehicles, coal-burning power plants and decaying vegetation The principal causes of methane emissions are animals, natural gas wells and pipes, and landfills. There is a close tie between the types and uses of energy and both methane and carbon emissions, so energy strategies to reduce these emissions will likely grow in importance.