Dealing with Global Warming

December 05 / January 06 By: Jae Edmonds Volume 3 Number 6

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To stabilize concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, global carbon emissions must peak during the 21st century and then decline indefinitely. This can occur only if lower carbon-emitting technologies are deployed worldwide. Improved technology can both reduce the amount of energy needed to produce a unit of economic output and lower the carbon emissions per unit of energy used. Successful development and deployment of new and improved technologies can significantly reduce the cost of achieving any concentration target.

The Strategy

Research conducted by the Global Energy Technology Strategy Program of the Joint Global Change Research Institute clearly shows that a portfolio of technologies is necessary to manage the risks of climate change and to respond to evolving conditions. There are several advantages to diversification:

—€ A diversified portfolio accommodates future uncertainties. Changing scientific knowledge and economic conditions, combined with uncertainty in the resource base, require a diversified initial portfolio of technology investments. Portfolio investment priorities will evolve as these uncertainties are better understood.

—€ A broad portfolio can control costs. A portfolio encompassing a broad suite of technologies can lower the costs of stabilization significantly. However, the public and private sectors cannot fund every idea. Technology investment priorities must be established to reflect available funding.

—€ A broad portfolio can meet the differing needs of key regions. Countries will need and employ different technologies based on their geography, indigenous resources and economic, social and political systems.

—€ A flexible portfolio can accommodate alternative policy responses to the climate issue. A technology portfolio complements a wide range of possible national and international policies, including trading, taxes, and other policies and measures.

—€ A broad portfolio also can reflect the diversity of the energy system. Technologies are needed to improve the efficiency of energy use, develop non-carbon energy sources, and limit the free venting of carbon from the fossil energy that will continue to be burned.

Discouraging signs

While it is technically possible to stabilize the concentrations of CO2 at a variety of levels with any suite of technologies, better technology is essential to controlling cost. Incremental improvements in existing technology will help, but moving beyond business as usual is important to dramatically reduce the cost of stabilization. Yet the rate of global public and private investment in energy R&D has declined substantially in recent decades. The energy system is capital-intensive and the development and deployment of new technologies can take decades.

The present reduced rates of global public and private sector energy R&D investments therefore do not bode well for dramatic improvements in technology to control stabilization costs.

Jae Edmonds is Chief Scientist and Laboratory Fellow at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and manages the Global Energy Technology Strategy Program.